Arthor: Kris Main
Donald John Trump is also known as "Trump" and "King of Understanding" on the Chinese Internet, 45th and 47th President of the United States, who is famous and bankrupt. He is the first and only president-elect in the history of the United States to be convicted and exempted from criminal punishment. He is controversial and perverse, but he does not like to play by the rules.
During his first term as president, he launched a full-scale trade war with China, accusing the novel coronavirus of being a "Chinese virus". At the same time, it extorted allies, demanding that allies increase the proportion of US military garrison costs, and imposed tariffs on allies. In his view, whether close or distant, whether the position is against US or not, if the United States cannot gain benefits, it will be attacked through economic, political, tariff and other means.
The conservative group represented by the "red neck" represented by the "rust belt" industrial workers or native white men in the United States. It has a huge resonance with its "America First" political proposition. It is impressive that many supporters were unable to kneel near the hospital during their hospitalization for COVID-19 may “God bless Trump” with a speedy recovery. It can be said that Trump's popularity in the United States is at its zenith.
In the presidential election of 2024, Trump won the election by an undisputed margin. After four years of absence from the presidency, he can be regarded as "I am back again. ". Compared with being targeted by almost everyone in the first term, this time, whether it is Facebook's Mark Elliot Zuckerberg, or Tesla CEO Elon Reeve Musk who is involved in government operations, are Silicon Valley upstarts. Or the traditional old money, such as the Wall Street plutocrats, gave him a very high courtesy, which greatly satisfied his vanity. There are no great obstacles in the future. Looking at his recent speeches and policy statements, we can also find that his rebellious nature has not changed much. This is also well reflected in his personnel appointments, and most of the nominees are "fans" who firmly support him.
At the same time, in the face of Sino-US relations, Trump's "fans" are also in a state of fighting to the end. For example, the anti-China “crazy heads” sanctioned by the Chinese side. Marco Antonio Rubio, the newly appointed Secretary of State, Michael George Glenn Waltz, a Green Beret veteran, and China hawk who will serve as National Security Adviser, George Glen Walt, while Pete Hegseth, who is equally hawkish on China, will serve as Secretary of Defense. As for the talk of escalating the trade war with China, it has also been seen on Trump's personal social account.
These tit-for-tat moves against China may still be acceptable to US allies. Then, less than a month after Trump regained the presidency, he said that Canada would become the 51st state of the United States. It does not rule out the use of force to recapture the Panama Canal Zone and Greenland, Denmark, just like a nuclear bomb. It has shocked many traditional allies of the United States.
We should carefully analyze the consequences of Trump's second term of office and the guiding ideology of his foreign relations. It is more meaningful to grasp the future direction of the world than ever before. Trump's second term is also bound to be a very important key time node to test Sino-US relations. It compares Trump's policy towards China with his attitude towards allies, and analyses the relationship between the new policy and the traditional policy of the United States will get a more accurate picture of where the United States is headed.
So, let's start with Trump talking about annexing Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal Zone, starting a journey to explore the foreign policy of Trump's new term.
Allies Beware of Trump's Annexation of Canada and Greenland
First on January 7, 2025, Trump used his social app "Truth Social” that Canadians love being the 51st state of the United States, and claimed that it would prevent Chinese and Russian ships from threatening Canada.
Canadians are naturally quite resistant to this. According to a special poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute in Canada on January 14, 90% of Canadians will vote "no" in a referendum. Even if the United States offer financial incentives of $20,000 while the other was offered $60,000 to Canadians under the "inducement" model, it will not be possible. Canadians also voted for less than 10%. In several hypothetical economic scenarios, 74% of Canadians said they would not vote for it even if they lost their job, while 69% of Canadians said they disagreed even if they lost half their income. Even under the assumption that the Canadian economy has entered a deep recession, 76% of Canadians disagree. More dramatically, 49% of Americans oppose the merger of Canada and the United States, nearly twice as many as the 25% of Americans who support it. At the same time, 77% of Americans believe that the decision to merge into the United States should be made by Canadians themselves.
If on the issue of Canada's incorporation into the United States, Trump is still restrained. Then he seems determined to annex Denmark and Greenland. Speaking at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on the same day he announced the annexation of Canada, Mr. Trump said that he could not assure the world he would not use military or economic coercion to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal Zone, which is dealt with in the next section of this article. In this regard, the Weiser family, former US ambassador to Poland and member of the Atlantic Council Daniel Fried, a senior researcher at Weiser Family, wrote on the official website of the Atlantic Council on January 9, 2025. The possibly spoof threat to berate Trump embodies the 19th-century mindset of world power — power through territorial conquest. He warned that they would reduce the United States to a mere bully that rules through force and fear, assuredly triggering a reaction against it, as well as ending US alliances.
But an arrogant man like Trump will not take the words of establishment scholars seriously at all. On the same day that he spoke at Mar-a-Lago, his son, Donald John Trump Jr., flew to Greenland on his behalf. Given Trump's unusual path, it is impossible for Trump Jr. to go to Greenland without political implications.
Sure enough, Trump's supporters quickly made a big move. According to the New York Post on December 25, 2024, sources familiar with Trump said that buying Greenland or the Panama Canal Zone is "100% serious" for Trump. And Trump's vice president-elect, James David Vance, during an appearance on "FOX News Sunday" on Jan. 12, 2025, Vance said, “there’s a deal to be made in Greenland," and " (Greenland) is really important for America strategically. "It has " a lot of great natural resources ".
In the face of pressure from the United States, Denmark is clearly afraid. Ulrik Pram Gad, Senior Research Fellow, Danish Institute for International Studies Gad told Politico on January 10, 2025 that if Trump did annex Greenland by force, “that would be the shortest war in the world, there is no defensive capacity in Greenland. “ "In order not to be overly confrontational and to understand that the United States covets Greenland's resources, the Danish government has chosen to cooperate actively. ". According to Reuters on the same day, Tanbreez Mining, Greenland's largest developer of rare earth mines, said: U.S. and Danish officials lobbied the developer of Greenland's largest rare earths deposit last year not to sell its project to Chinese-linked firms. The mine was eventually sold to New York-based Critical Metal.
According to David Merriman, director of research at the consulting firm Project Blue, “While the size of the Tanbreez is significant, the grade and the mineralogy are nothing to be shouted about," Merriman said. "However, given China's strict control of rare earths, this political intervention does benefit the United States. “ The Tanbreez deposit contains about 30% of heavy rare earths, which are widely used in defense applications, and the mine also contains gallium minerals. Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, and other military giants have begun to approach Critical Metal.
Critical Metals' third largest investor, it may be noted, is Cantor Fitzgerald, a brokerage firm. The company is led by Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee to be the new US Ministry of Commerce secretary. It is also conceivable that Trump himself has some interests in it.
Now that Trump and his team are blustering about Greenland, his supporters in Congress are naturally falling in love with him. Republican Congressman William Andrew Ogles IV introduced the bill "Make Greenland Great Again" on 13 January 2025. In all, 10 House Republicans have signed up. Not later than 5 calendar days after reaching an agreement with the Kingdom of Denmark relating to the acquisition of Greenland by the United States, the President shall transmit to the appropriate congressional committees the agreement, including all related materials and annexes.
Trump's further aggressiveness has forced Denmark to choose appeasement to the end. According to Axios, the Danish government sent a message to the Trump team a few days before January 11. He expressed his willingness to to discuss boosting security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island. American elites are also supportive of this. James Stavridis, a retired U. S. Navy Admiral, and former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO Stavridis said in a January 10, 2025, Bloomberg byline that he supported Trump's views on Greenland because Trump is right about one thing: Greenland, with just 56,000 people in an expanse larger than Mexico, is an immensely valuable piece of real estate. Although he did not approve of direct annexation, so, let’s try plan b: working with Denmark on integrating Greenland’s economic, defense and diplomatic needs with our own. Therefore, at this stage, there is only a dispute over how to control Greenland within the ruling group of the United States. But there is no discussion about whether control is needed.
The European allies of the United States responded cautiously and did not explicitly blame Trump. But this does not mean that they will not express their anger through various channels. Stefan Wolff, a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, wrote in The Conversation on January 9, 2025. He believes that Trump's aim is to confront Russia and China in the Arctic and other regions. And " No great power in history has been able to go it alone forever–and even taking possession of Greenland, by hook or by crook, is unlikely to change this. "Nor is it likely to change that. "Gideon Rachman, chief diplomatic columnist for The Financial Times. "He lashed out at Trump's perverse acts under the title " Trump risks turning the US into a rogue state". He pointed out that the German chancellor and the French foreign minister took Trump's threat very seriously. In theory, Greenland is protected by the EU's mutual defense clause. He also said that this would be a big gift to China because it would pull apart the western alliance. "The fact that the president is ripping up international norms is a disaster," he concluded.
2. The Panama Canal Zone and the fate of the United States
Trump's silence on Canada and Greenland can be regarded as a kind of blackmail against his allies. Taking advantage of the fact that they have no independent defense and diplomacy. But Trump's desire to annex the Panama Canal Zone is a real diplomatic disaster, even if it is only a verbal threat. Trump, unintentionally, it may destroy one of the most important legacies of former President Jimmy Carter, who died last year. And completely shake the foundation of the United States in Latin America.
All this goes back to the inauguration of former President Carter. In the 1970s, the United States was in internal and external difficulties. The economy is in a period of stagflation, and the defense and diplomacy maintain a high-intensity cold war with the Soviet Union. To make matters worse, America's international credibility has been badly damaged by the failure of the Vietnam War. Its image is also struggling in Latin America.
On January 7, 2025, The New York Times recalled how former US President Carter was in a very bad situation. Properly handle the Panama Canal Zone issue. According to author Peter Baker, it was an episode in Mr. Carter’s presidency that many Americans today may not remember or know much about. " Understanding this period of history, we can better understand the tremendous destructive effect of Trump's remarks on the control of the Western Hemisphere of the United States. ".
In June 1978, former President Carter traveled to Panama to negotiate the controversial Panama Canal Treaty. Also known as the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. "We stand on the threshold of a new era," Mr. Carter said at the time. The treaty was so important that he accompanied President Carter to Panama. James Fallows, who is also a speechwriter for Mr. Carter, said that Through a bizarre accident of timing, we now have one president fantasizing about taking back the canal at just the time the world recognizes the canal transfer as an important part of a late president’s legacy. "The president he is talking about is President Trump. ".
Former President Carter cited the two treaties included in the Panama Canal Treaty as his signal achievement. It even featured prominently in his obituary. In fact, the public opinion base for the signing of the treaty is quite low. According to the Gallup Survey of September 7, 1977, more than 1300 respondents were surveyed in more than 300 districts across the United States. Forty-six percent disapproved of the treaty, while 39% of respondents supported it. In addition, 15% of respondents said they had no decision. Meanwhile, two-thirds of Republicans oppose the treaty.
Demonstrators stand on the steps of the Capitol building in September 1977 to oppose the signing of the Panama Canal Treaty and Neutrality Treaty of 1977. Credit: John Duricka/AP
At the time, the agreement was fiercely attacked by the right, including the then governor of California. Ronald Reagan, later the 40th president of the United States. On March 31, 1976, Reagan delivered his famous speech, "To Restore America. "An incendiary slogan was put forward against the signing of the agreement, that is, "We bought it, we paid for it. " We bought it, we paid for it, we built it, and we intend to keep it.”
The Panama Canal was built by the United States from 1904 to 1914, and then it became a sensitive national issue in Panama. Four American soldiers and 20 Panamanians died in the massive riots of 1964. As a result, the Panamanian government severed diplomatic relations with the United States. Subsequently, former President Lyndon B. Johnson (Lyndon B. Johnson) agreed to negotiate a new treaty giving up sovereignty over the Panama Canal Zone. Only this was later blocked by the Panamanian coup of 1968.
Negotiations were once again resumed in 1970, during the term of former President Richard M. Nixon (Richard M. Nixon). Negotiations continued after the succession of former President Gerald R. Ford (Gerald R. Ford). After former President Ford lost his re-election, he told the incoming Carter, the Panama Canal issue was a more pressing matter than Middle East peace and Soviet arms control negotiations. At that time, U. S. generals told Carter that at least 100,000 U. S. troops would have to be deployed to defend the Canal Zone, which was also a difficult cost for the United States to bear.
In order to win the trust of Latin America and the world, former President Carter vigorously promoted the signing of the Panama Canal Treaty. But under the huge wave of opposition, former President Carter spent a lot of effort. The New York Times, in its report of April 19, 1978, discussed the hardships of this process in great detail. The treaty was divided into two treaties for voting. To ensure passage, the United States Senate first voted on the second treaty on March 16, 1978, after 22 days of debate. In a vote on Carter's memoir, " I had never been more tense in my life," the section passed by 68 votes to 32. One vote more than required by the Constitution of the United States.
But former President Carter had an even tougher first treaty to pass. With the crucial vote of California Republican Senator Samuel Ichiye Hayakawa, the United States Senate also ratified this portion of the Treaty on April 18, 1978, by a vote of 68 to 32. James Fallows, quoted above, called it "one of Jimmy Carter's most important treaties, “Albeit the least remembered diplomatic and legislative achievement.
The first treaty stipulates that the United States and Pakistan jointly operate the Panama Canal Zone until its completion in 2000. That is, to hand over the canal to the Panamanian government at the end of the last century. The second treaty added that the canal would remain neutral, guaranteeing the passage of American shipping, and allowing the United States to use force to defend the canal.
As a sign of respect for Latin American leaders, former President Carter specially invited leaders from all over Latin America to attend the signing ceremony held on September 7, 1977. Before the ceremony, General Omar Efraín Omar Efraín Torrijos Herrera, leader of the Panamanian military junta, the lieutenant colonel who launched the coup in 1968 wept with former President Carter in a private setting.
Of course, going against public opinion is poison to an electoral system like the United States. Seven senators who supported the treaty lost re-election after only a few months. Carter's subsequent re-election defeat also had something to do with this. However, it is precisely because of this willingness to gamble on their political lives. The usually hawkish former President Reagan also embraced the notion that the treaty was worth preserving. Since then, successive presidents of the United States have not violated the treaty. It can be said that the Panama Canal Treaty was the product of the willingness of politicians to sacrifice themselves in Carter's time. At the most difficult moment of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, it stabilized the rear area of the United States. No matter how serious the current political decline in the United States is, the treaty is still the cornerstone of the United States to maintain relations with Latin America.
Looking back on this period of history, we can understand the historical reasons why the foundation of the United States in Latin America has remained stable over the years. The self-sacrifice of Carter's generation represents the credibility of the American ruling group, which is more important to hegemony than anything else. Trump obviously does not think that credibility is worth a few yuan, and he must think that the United States is far stronger than it was 48 years ago. So he is more concerned about the current political realization effect of taking back the Panama Canal Zone.
So, are Americans now obsessed with getting back the Panama Canal Zone? The answer is no. According to YouGov, a polling organization, on January 8, 2025, only 36% of the people supported it, and only 17% strongly supported it. So, it's clear that this will not bring direct political benefits, but Trump clearly has his own small plan.
Joshua Zeitz, a staff writer for Politics. com, published an explanation of Trump's mindset on January 11. He believes that many Americans will see the country in the doldrums in 2025 because of the COVID-19 epidemic, and domestic inflation is serious. And that problem of illegal immigration and drug are becoming more and more serious.
At that time, the sharp issue of sovereignty over the Panama Canal Zone was not the canal itself. The Panama Canal Zone has deep political implications at a particularly difficult time for the United States. Under former President Ford, people witnessed the awkward withdrawal of the last batch of US troops in Vietnam. Millions of viewers watched on television as, on the roof of the American Embassy, the frantic boarding of the embassy staff and South Vietnamese government personnel, and felt a chill in the spine. In addition, inflation rose to 16. 8%, unemployment rates soared as high as 8.9% and mortgage rates hovered at a prohibitively high level of about 10%. For conservatives in the United States, the abandonment of Vietnam by a strong United States is the embodiment of everything wrong with America. Then Carter encountered more problems, such as the closure of more than half of the gas stations in the United States in 1977 due to the crisis with OPEC countries. Then of course there was the terrible Tehran embassy incident of November 4, 1979.
It can be said that there was an extremely desperate national mood in the United States at that time. Controlling the canal wouldn’t just be a matter of trade or geopolitics, but a metaphor for American might. It is also a metaphor for American power.
Back to Trump, most of his supporters believe that the United States is, according to Joshua Zeitz, " the U.S. has become a“third-world hellhole” beset by inflation, extra-legal immigration, drugs and crime. " So from this point of view, Trump wants to reproduce the right-wing rhetoric of former President Reagan during the Carter era. It also becomes supported by reality.
Voters are in urgent need of psychological comfort, and Trump is a politician who is good at performing and catering to public opinion. Naturally, it will show voters a sense of power to control everything. Whether the psychological appeal of voters is just a dream or a flower in the mirror, this sentiment is important to Trump at the moment. This kind of shocking speech has a strong impact on public opinion, which is conducive to Trump's position. It can also better satisfy the demands of the interest groups that support him. As for whether this remark will destroy the political legacy of former President Carter and endanger the attitude of Latin American countries towards the United States, that’s not what he wants to think about.
However, the damage to the credibility of the United States is immediate. Because Trump's remarks are too shocking, José Raúl Mulino Quintero, President of Panama said in a protest letter at the end of December 2024 that every inch of the Panama Canal belonged to Panama. On December 26, 2024, he also addressed Trump: "For God's sake, there are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God. The world is free to visit the canal.”
Interestingly, Trump's "little fans" are very good at guessing the "upper mind". On January 9, 2025, members of the Special Committee on China and the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure of the United States House of Representatives, Republican U. S. Representative Dustin Michael Johnson, with most of the 15 Republicans in the House of Representatives co-signing, introduced the Panama Canal Repurchase Act. "Not later than 180 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the President shall submit a report to Congress detailing the progress of the negotiations authorized by subsection (a), potential challenges, and anticipated outcomes.
On his official website, the congressman said the bill would authorize the purchase of the Panama Canal. He was very ingratiating, saying that Trump wanted to take the Panama Canal Zone back to the United States, which could improve national security. according to the U.S. Department of State, around 72% of all vessel transits through the canal are coming from or destined to a U.S. port. The Panama Canal is also an important transit point for United States Coast Guard and Department of Defense vessels. It is also unacceptable for Panama to become the first country in Latin America to accept the "the Belt and Road" initiative in 2018. In addition, CK Hutchison Holdings of Hong Kong, China, which operates two ports at both ends of the Panama Canal Holdings and China's Shandong Landbridge Group are even more unacceptable to him. It is hard to believe that Trump's "fans" under his opponents are too eager to express themselves and will shout. He has always liked his subordinates to do things according to his wishes, turning these provocations without factual basis into so-called chips. It is in line with his usual style.
3. sharpen the knife to China's tariff weapon.
Since there is no need to consider the credibility and long-term interests of the United States, even the threat of annexation of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal Zone has China at its core. Then it is more logical to be tough on China directly. In the Arsenal of weapons against China, Trump's favorite "bluff" is the tariff weapon.
Interestingly, Australia, a close ally of the United States and the core of the Five Eyes Alliance, was the first to realize the problem. According to Bloomberg on November 7, 2024,Christopher Kent, assistant governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said at a parliamentary panel meeting that day that the high tariffs imposed by the United States on China may have an "adverse effect" on Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock told MPs at the meeting: " The big concern is large tariffs on China, which may have an adverse effect on us." Mr. Block assured lawmakers at the meeting that the RBA would respond if it was necessary. This frightened ally of the United States, like most of its allies, has a large share of trade with China.
It is obviously not groundless to scare the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to a report on the website of Politics on November 14, 2024,Robert Emmet Lighthizer, Trump's first-term trade representative Lighthizer and his allies have been preparing to convince lawmakers and the public that a sharp increase in tariffs will only bring vitality to the economy, not a dilemma, and tariffs include a “universal” tariff of up to 20 percent on all goods coming into the U.S. and at least a 60 percent tariff on all imports from China. Lighthizer and his inner circle have been preparing trade and economic policy actions for the administration’s first 100 days for Trump's second presidential term.
More interestingly, Trump will take more action against the EU, which he calls "Mini China". Lighthizer also said that the European Union had taken advantage of it. In a report on the website of Politics on November 8, 2024,the two attended the 70th Bilderberg Meeting from May 30 to June 2, 2024, a source at Meeting told the website's Daniel Lippman, Lighthizer’s unexpected presence and comments " terrifying to everybody who was there." His real views " made the Europeans who were there very nervous". Considered a secret club for European and American elites, the club was founded in 1954 to promote dialogue between Europe and North America. In terms of personnel composition, about two-thirds of the participants are from Europe and the rest are from North America. According to the field composition, about 1/4 comes from the political and government fields, and the rest comes from other fields. The ability to frighten a group of people with status and insight is enough to show what Trump or his supporters sent him for.
Since we can strike hard at our allies, we will not be soft on China. Voice of America, writing on November 24, 2024,In its annual report of November 19, 2024, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) of the United States Congress, for the first time, it officially proposed to completely abolish China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. The reason is that the status "allows China to steal intellectual property and manipulate the market. "Get the same trade treatment as US allies. A few days before the release of the report, John Moolenaar, Chairman of the House Select Committee on the Communist Party of China made the same claim. Earlier in June 2024, Rubio, mentioned below, proposed a similar bill.
Shen Wanhongyuan of China published a study on this issue at the end of October 2024, concluding that if the status was abolished, the average tax rate would be 42%. With the 20% tariff of Article 301, the average tariff rate to China is more than 60%. What needs to be added is that 48% of Chinese goods are no longer entitled to preferential tax rates. The Voice of America quoted William Rienshi, director of international business studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said that the possibility of abolishing PNTR is very high because the Republican Party is in full power. However, since many Chinese goods already have very high tax rates, the abolition of PNTR has no substantive significance. He said, the real threat is that there is already a proposal to create a third column for China in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States. Impose special tariffs on Chinese products.
This would lead to a direct hard decoupling.
Trump's infatuation with tariffs is not in doubt. On November 27, 2024, The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled " Wields a Tariff Bludgeon.” The article holds that Trump has used tariffs as a all-purpose lever in foreign and even domestic policy. Tariffs will also be a lever to remake the entire global trading system in Trump's second term. It can be said that Trump's second term will always be inseparable from tariffs.
The closer he gets to taking office, the more the Trump team reveals how to impose tariffs. According to the Wall Street Journal on January 12, 2025,Stephen Miran, Trump's nominee as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, argued that the U.S. could be better off with average tariffs of around 20% and as high as 50%, compared with the current 2%. Milan at Hudson Bay Capital “Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, ," said the November 2024 report, “and fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems.” The economist also believes that the new "Plaza Accord" can be used to depress the US exchange rate modeled on the 1985 Plaza Accord in which the U.S. and its allies jointly acted to drive down the dollar. The bargaining chip is not to declare that it views joint defense obligations and the American defense umbrella as less binding or reliable for nations which implement retaliatory tariffs. Interestingly, A major question is whether a threat to withhold the defense umbrella from countries that don’t cooperate would be effective. The U.S. has no defense alliance with Mexico, Vietnam or China which account for half the U.S. trade deficit.
It is not difficult to see that Trump's tariff stick is not a choice after overall consideration, nor does it consider the effect of the policy. Tariff measures are only based on the logic that Trump still has confidence in the strength of the United States itself, and the purpose is only to force his opponents to submit. Deep confidence in America's national capabilities can also be seen in the perverse actions of Trump's new cabinet.
4. the arrogance of Trump's new cabinet.
One common characteristic of Trump's cabinet members is their loyalty. According to a Bloomberg report on November 14, " Subservience to Trump is the main qualification for a job.” These people who are obedient and easy to use are full of aggression and are not afraid of any resistance. Trump has nominated many China hawks to take charge of political and diplomatic work, which can well express Trump's arrogant side.
In the political ecology of the United States, the National Security Adviser is a president who can be appointed directly without the approval of the Senate. It can coordinate the important duties of all the highest security organs. Michael Waltz, as Trump's nominee for national security adviser, is a typical hawk. For example, on the issue of the war between Russia and Ukraine, he participated in ABC's "This Week" on January 12, 2025. The United States and Russia could establish relationships “in the coming months” that will lead to an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. However, Ukraine needs to lower the age of enlistment to 18 before any agreement can be reached with Russia. To provide enough troops to stabilize the front line. This remark had an immediate effect. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Decree No. 12076 on January 15, 2025. Ukrainian men over the age of 17 are required to register for military service.
On China-related issues, Walz is firing on all cylinders. On November 2, 2024, The Economist published a byline with Matthew Kroenig. The article argues that With stability restored in Europe and the Middle East, America would finally be able to prioritize China. In addition, the author believes that poorly designed sanctions on Russia prevent Western countries from buying Russian oil and gas, but permit China to snap up energy resources at a discounted rate. The new administration should also increase defense spending and revitalize the defense-industrial base to make sure its armed forces are clearly capable of denying a Chinese attack on Taiwan. It can be said that the new national security adviser still believes that the US military has the power to fight a war in the Western Pacific region.
Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for secretary of defense, also posed as a fighter to the end. At the confirmation hearing of the United States Senate on January 14, 2025,He said the deployment of the US military in the India-Taiwan region was aimed at containing China's "expansion". In response to the sensitive Taiwan issue, he said that the United States presently maintains its longstanding commitments as outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act, three communiques and the six assurances. If confirmed, I will review our current posture with the president and other national security leaders, and meet with the committee in a classified session to discuss further. Hegseth also stressed that the Chinese Communists are "the most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security."
Marco Rubio, who actively supports "Hong Kong independence" and has been sanctioned by China for many years, has also been nominated by Trump as a candidate for Secretary of State. The anti-China "crazy heads" said at the confirmation hearing of the US Senate on January 15, 2025. China achieved its global superpower status by " Instead, they have lied, cheated, hacked and stolen their way to global superpower status, at our expense.” At the same time, he believes that we should avoid relying too much on China in industry. Throughout history, no country has been able to become a superpower through rogue means. Only people who are not cognitively sound can think so.
Rubio further said at the meeting that it is necessary to help the Taiwan authorities complete the military upgrade so that the Taiwan military has sufficient deterrence against the PLA. Otherwise, it will face a military showdown with China before 2030. In response, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, refuted Rubio's statement at a press conference on January 16, 2025. The Chinese side stressed that "the United States should establish a correct understanding of China and stop unprovoked attacks to discredit China,” and "We should abide by our commitment not to support Taiwan independence and stop conniving at the separatist forces of Taiwan independence."
Looking at the insolent attitude of these three cabinet members, it is not difficult to see that they are very blindly arrogant. To intimidate those who are not firm in their will in China through words, let them feel the attitude of the United States to defend its hegemony at the cost of a war, even including military intervention in Taiwan. And thus, influence that development of China's political situation. However, historical experience tells us that any expansionism and foreign provocation are often not active attacks full of advantages. It is a passive defense that does not want to be seen. Trump and his staff have to tear up their basic credibility in exchange for a quick discount. Then there must be a huge problem in the ability of the United States to maintain its strength.
5. The nature of weakness under the cloak of expansionism
On January 8, 2025,The New York Post, a pro-Republican outlet, published a front-page version of Trump's vision, " THE DONROE DOCTRINE Trump’s vision for hemisphere, detailing the true size of the United States in Trump's mind. Wherein "Roe" refers to, the famous Monroe Doctrine put forward by James Monroe, the fifth president and seventh secretary of state of the United States. This man was also the last Founding Father to serve as President of the United States.
The principle is also simple to sum up, and America is the America of Americans. This was the guiding principle for the struggle for spheres of influence with the European colonial powers, and it was also the most popular sentence for the United States to implement hegemony. Subsequent presidents include Ulysses S. Grant (Ulysses S. ). Grant (18th), Theodore Roosevelt (26th), John F. Kennedy (35th) and Ronald Reagan (40th) have all expressed support for this idea. This principle is since the United States can have absolute military superiority in the Western Hemisphere. It is the bottom line for further competition for world control. This is the root of the expansionist national policy of the United States.
Now, when we look at the New York Post poster, it is not difficult to see that the United States is not on the strategic defensive. It will not and cannot rush to control the strategic points near the North American continent. Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal Zone are within reach of the United States mainland to maintain its control over Europe. To ensure that they have a foothold in Eurasia and control of key areas around them. Trump and his team, or supporters, clearly want to maintain control of the Western Hemisphere. That is the bottom line of the expansionist national policy of the United States.
This is also understandable. After all, in the open front of the Pacific Ocean, the first island chain has been completely covered by the land-based firepower of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. In the face of the PLA Navy and Air Force, which has long been able to reach the second island chain, the U. S. military has no spare geographical resources in the Pacific to construct a dense defensive line. At present, the United States is shrinking from the Western Pacific frontier to Guam, Tinian Island, Australia and even Hawaii on a large scale. Therefore, in the Pacific region, its expansionist capability has been exhausted, and it cannot support long-term close deployment around China. Preparing to establish a control area in the Western Hemisphere can be understood as the choice space of expansionist national policy in the Pacific Ocean. It is almost squeezed out by China's rapidly rising national strength.
Interestingly, Trump or his team and supporters also know that no matter how much they shrink their actions. It is impossible to admit that the US military cannot hold the Pacific defense line unless it is absolutely necessary. Even if the people or the allies know this, the United States, which has established itself as an expansionist national policy, cannot accept such an expression at all. The premature disclosure of this idea means that the hegemonic system built after the Cold War will be quickly destroyed by itself. Before the firm control of the Western Hemisphere has been established, the United States can only carry out its strength to the end. Unless there are fundamental changes in the internal system of the United States. Otherwise, the United States, which suddenly loses the support of its hegemonic system, will probably not be able to keep Latin America and can only shrink back to North America.
In this context, Trump's proposal does not exclude the use of force to recover the Panama Canal Zone. It can be considered as a false threat to force the opponent to submit before the mask is not exposed. This will not only not frighten people, but also make Latin American countries realize that the United States has seriously lacked basic confidence in its own strength. They will be more inclined to choose more powerful countries outside the region to seek cooperation. This is what Trump and others are trying to avoid. It is the same thing for the United States to increase its pressure and for Latin America to stay away from the United States, so the more Trump does in this regard, the more he will do. The easier it is to lose Latin America. Trump did not rule out the use of force to control peripheral points, which could be considered a last resort.
As far as China is concerned, since the United States is unable to maintain its expansionist strategic objectives, in fact, there is no harm in forcibly maintaining a strong pressure on China. Bluffing without substantial benefits will only lead to huge problems within the US allies in the Western Pacific. After all, confrontation with China is also a huge drain on these countries. Without sufficient material support, there will be huge contradictions within these countries. At that time, it is almost inevitable that some dramatic things will happen, and some problems around China will be solved smoothly.
China only needs to maintain normal competition with the United States to suppress all kinds of impulses in Trump's second term. At the same time, maintaining in-depth exchanges with all walks of life in the United States, focusing on deepening non-governmental exchanges, will be the most effective solution. According to a Reuters report on January 15, 2025,As of January 14, more than 500,000 "TikTok refugees" have flocked to the Chinese social media app "Little Red Book(Xiaohongshu)" due to the US ban on TikTok US. Subsequently, both outgoing Biden and incoming Trump said that the ban needed to be postponed. TikTok also officially announced on January 18: "Unless the Biden Administration immediately provides a definitive statement to satisfy the most critical service providers assuring non-enforcement, unfortunately TikTok will be forced to go dark on January 19. "This also shows from the side that in the face of the US government's possible malicious political suppression of China, with the support of the state. "Enterprises can also have enough ways to deal with provocations, and government relief is only the last resort. The size of China itself is a bargaining chip.
Trump's second term is bound to do a lot of destructive things under the manipulation of arrogant aides. However, since Trump is going to overturn the huge historical legacy of former President Carter,If Trump wants to shrink back to the Western Hemisphere, there is no stable and orderly contraction plan. Regular contraction is called retreat, and irregular contraction is called defeat.
No matter what the new Trump administration wants to do, if it wants to rely on a few tricks to force China to submit, it will ultimately lead to failure. The result of exerting too much force is always too much. Perhaps the US debt problem is the number one enemy of the United States rather than arm-wrestling with China. Here, we can quote a speech made by Huang Qifan, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, at the 13th Kyoto Forum on June 24, 2020. Ming.
It should be reminded that according to the statistics of the US Treasury Department, the size of US debt at the end of 2020 was $27. 7 trillion. In 2024, the federal revenue of the United States was $4. 92 trillion, the GDP of the United States was just under $29 trillion, and the national debt was $36. 22 trillion.
China has always treated it with cooperation. According to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 17, 2025, at the invitation of the United States,President Xi Jinping's special representative and Vice President Han Zheng will attend the inauguration ceremony of President Trump on January 20. Maybe Trump and others should think calmly. Which is the better way to achieve its goal of "Make America Great Again".
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