The cryptocurrency market reached a medium-term peak in the first quarter of 2024, set new highs in the fourth quarter
We believe that the growth of the cryptocurrency market will continue in 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter of 2025. We predict that Bitcoin will be valued at about $180,000 at the peak of the cycle, while Ethereum will trade above $6,000. Other well-known projects such as Solana and Sui may exceed $500 and $10, respectively.
After this first peak, we expect a 30% correction for BTC, and altcoins will face a sharper drop to 60% as the market consolidates over the summer. However, the recovery is likely to occur in the fall, when the main tokens regain momentum and return to previous historical highs by the end of 2025.
The persistently high key rate leads traders to take out loans to bet on the rising price of BTC, hoping that the growth of BTC will exceed the loan rate for three months or more, indicating a large speculative demand for BTC.
Excessive unrealized profits of the holders will put pressure on demand. If the growth in the share of BTC holders sitting on significant paper income (profit to cost ratio of 70% or higher) stabilizes, this will indicate market euphoria.
Overvalued market capitalization relative to realized value: When MVRV (market value to realized value) scores exceed 5, it shows that the price of BTC is much higher than average purchase prices, which often signals overheated conditions.
Declining Bitcoin dominance: If Bitcoin's share in the overall cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, this implies a speculative shift to riskier altcoins. This will mean that the market will enter the final growth cycle.
Confirmation of the end of the bullish cycle will be a stream of messages from friends who do not understand cryptocurrency, with questions about questionable projects. This is a reliable signal of speculative euphoria near the top of the market.
These indicators have historically been reliable signals of market optimism and will guide our prospects in determining the expected market cycles of 2025.
