The future isn't pre-written. It's coded, debated, and continuously reimagined.

Or so it felt at Devcon 2024 anyway!

Bangkok's humid air. Thick with possibility: a veritable crucible of collective conversation, the palpable sense culture and tradition are in constant negotiation with technology. Each vying for its share of Thai territory.

As malleable as Ethereum. More so perhaps.

From 1,000 shards to 64, then to none. Sprawling megalopolis. Streamlined movement across countless neighborhoods via scooters, BTS sktrains and MRT. As bridges (bungee, orbiter and co) streamline connectivity rails across chains. If chain abstraction has its way, perhaps they too will be a fond memory.

Architecture Concatenation

With BTC dominance (vs ETH and all the other cryptos) remaining above 50% for the last six months - more or less - one might have been mistaken for thinking this would have been the main focal point. Yet even with bullishness at the symbolic $100k ATH on the horizon, undergirded by Saylor's unrelenting conviction alongside the Trump victory, the wider ecosystem really got its chance to shine.

Encode BTC Hackathon

Bitcoin's approach: the conservative architectural strategy, has created a foundation so stable that institutional confidence all but assured. Over 70% of institutional investors plan to invest in digital assets, with Bitcoin leading the charge due to its perceived reliability. Ossification personified.

At the crux of the case presented by Odysseus (Phylax Systems) was an appreciation of the "Lindy" effect – where the longer something has survived, the longer it's likely to continue surviving – which has worked in Bitcoin's favour, creating a trust foundation that rivals traditional financial infrastructure.

So it could be for Ethereum, where security and deliberate intent are paramount in determine the knock-on effects and structures that are built atop it. Modern SpaceX rockets are dimensionally constrained by railroad specifications, which were themselves determined by the width of two horses standing side-by-side. The size has been ossified.

Solana, for instance, has chosen a path of aggressive optimization for transaction throughput, making frequent (sometimes breaking) protocol-level changes. In stark contrast to Ethereum's measured approach to core protocol modifications.

The Agility Imperative

Hearing Vitalik speak at various events across the city harked to a time where the outcome of ETH was far from uncertain. In the previous, more mild mannered, devconflict debate with Martin Koppleman, his ambivalence at Gnosis becoming an L2 belied an appreciation that they suspected it mightn't survive long enough for many to form. And this plurality is serving as a force multiplier for its growth.

Devcon

Uma Roy (Succinct) presented the counterveiling position. A lesson we learn from Bitcoin is that for a long time it has struggled to innovate on the base layer. It's too ossified. No one can build anything new. The proliferation of L2s, which in their final form should upgrade every six months, creates the space for ethereum as a protocol to remain reflexive. Whilst conceding that ETH, the base layer, isn’t suited to this level. The question becomes where on that spectrum should ETH lie? Being as ossified as BTC doesn’t make sense given we dont know what the end state we are striving for looks like clearly enough yet. Who is to say what tech will change our minds as to what primitives should be on the L1?

"Plonkish zkproofs. Starks could be a better fit. Ossifying doesn’t seem smart." Uma

The quantum computing horizon exemplifies this uncertainty. Cryptographic paradigms are not static but dynamic, requiring adaptive infrastructure. MEV (Miner Extractable Value) emerged unexpectedly, demonstrating how technological blind spots can rapidly transform. MEV didn’t become an issue for at least five years. That can happen. So it doesn’t make sense to commit to what it is today. Ethereum doesn't need a fixed North Star, but a "North Sky"—a principled yet flexible framework capable of embracing emergent possibilities.

She's undoubtedly onto something.

By the numbers: Decentralized Finance for instance has exploded from $1 billion in 2020 to $83.72 billion in 2024. This isn't just growth; it's a fundamental reimagining of financial infrastructure. Platforms like Aave and Uniswap aren't just companies; they're reconstructions of how we conceptualize value exchange.

Spectrum of Stability

Privatization of innovation through L2s represents a fascinating middle ground – stability at the core with experimentation at the edges.

Yet several key challenges emerge from this ossification discourse:

  1. Future-Proofing: How do we balance ossification with the need to adapt to future threats, such as quantum computing?
  2. Innovation Trade-offs: The debate revealed tensions between EVM equivalence and innovation freedom in Layer 2 solutions. Should L2s break free from strict EVM compatibility to foster greater innovation?
  3. Governance Dynamics: The role of upgrade cadence in protocol development raises questions about the balance between stability and progress.

"Agility requires direction, a vector needed. Getting to where you want to go takes too much time. Solana winning as they are focused on one direction. If we try to play the agility game we will lose." Odysseus

Ethereum's intentionally slow upgrade cadence is a feature, not a bug. With core developers operating through a large, consensus-driven committee, each modification undergoes rigorous scrutiny. Where Solana might change fundamental data structures in six months, Ethereum takes three years to make similar moves. This isn't inefficiency, but a deliberate strategy of minimizing risk and maintaining network reliability.

However, tech debt accumulates. Backwards compatibility becomes both a shield and a constraint. The ability to make breaking changes – when clearly for the greater good – can be net positive. This was a key reason to interrogate Eth maybe moving from merkle particia tree to verkle tree data structure. The challenge is distinguishing between necessary evolution and gratuitous disruption.

The Frontier

Oddyseus offered a provocative lens: Ethereum might not be the perfect settlement layer. Its not optimal for data availability. But it possesses something far more profound – unbroken continuity. An elemental value proposition.

"Sol will be the gambling layer," he suggests. "Ethereum will be where institutions deposit billions, where payments flow like digital lifeblood."

The temporal horizon stretches before us – 25 years of potential, fraught with uncertainty. "By the time we reach the end state, it will be too late,"

Yet Uma parries.

With greater ossification Layer 2's are trapped in EVM equivalence, unable to truly innovate on fundamental aspects like byte code format, state trees, or gas pricing.

"L2s need to break free of EVM compatibility," wherein upgradability becomes critical – but not through risky multisignature mechanisms. Instead, platforms need robust, time-locked upgrade paths that allow for "rage quit" scenarios, ensuring user agency. The quality of upgradability is important.

As Bangkok's twilight descended, casting long shadows across a grateful devconflict crowd, I reflected on the idea that we are not merely engineering technical protocols. We are crafting new ontological frameworks for human coordination—digital constitutions that will reshape how societies conceptualize trust, value, and collective action.

The future isn't written. It's coded, debated, and continuously reimagined.

Photo by Anantachai Saothong

* written as part of the t2 friends who write & Devconflict x Kiwi Arena contest

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