If you’ve ever thought about diving into crypto during a bull run, you’ve probably seen the wild swings and fast-paced action that can leave you feeling both exhilarated and lost. I remember when I first got into it, Bitcoin surged to new heights, news outlets were buzzing, and I thought, "This is it, I’m going to get rich!" But like many others, I didn’t quite understand the phases of the market. I jumped in during the hype, buying tokens I thought could retire my generation.
There were moves, though 28% high, hoping it could do more than that, but prices dropped out of my notice. I found myself staring at my screen in confusion, lost, wondering where I went wrong. It wasn’t until I studied the market’s cycles with the help of my alpha friend that I understood what had happened. That lesson led me to write this guide: a step-by-step breakdown of the "Path to Altseason."
` Trust me, only those who make it to the very end will unlock the bonus tips. `
Phase 1: Bitcoin’s Surge
Overview:
This is where it all starts; Bitcoin dominates the spotlight, and the market follows its lead. When Bitcoin moves, the whole market moves.
Key Signs:
• Bitcoin's price skyrockets, pulling attention from investors and the media.
• Bitcoin's dominance (the percentage of the market capitalization controlled by Bitcoin) rises above 60–70%.
• The media and mainstream conversations focus almost entirely on Bitcoin.
For instant, think back to 2017 and late 2020. During these periods, Bitcoin led the charge, with its price soaring and dragging the broader market along for the ride. Most recently, in late 2023 and early 2024, Bitcoin’s dominance surged above 60%, signaling renewed enthusiasm for the market.
What’s Driving the Market:
Major institutional investments, more favorable regulatory conditions, and a general rise in interest for digital assets drive Bitcoin’s dominance. If you understand these factors, you can get a sense of when the next big shift might happen.
What to Watch Out For:
While Bitcoin is in the lead, don’t get too fixated on it. As the market matures, other cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum and Sol, begin to play a bigger role. Keep an eye on how these assets perform in tandem with Bitcoin’s rise.
Tip: Be cautious when Bitcoin’s price surges; retracements (temporary declines) are common. If you missed the initial uptrend, hold off on buying in too quickly. Look for signs that the market is stabilizing before you make a move.
Phase 2: Ethereum’s Outperformance
Overview:
After Bitcoin stabilizes, Ethereum takes center stage. In this phase, Ethereum starts outperforming Bitcoin and drawing serious attention from investors.
Key Signs:
• Ethereum’s price increases faster than Bitcoin’s.
• The buzz around Ethereum’s use cases, smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), and NFTs grows louder.
• Activity on the Ethereum network rises, evident by high gas fees, showing that the demand is surging.
Recall back In 2021, Ethereum's role in DeFi and NFT platforms caused its price to jump dramatically. Similarly, by early 2024, Ethereum continued to see gains, especially as Layer-2 solutions and staking became more prominent.
What to Watch Out For:
The fear of missing out (FOMO) can be a dangerous thing. Be mindful not to buy in at the top. Look for signs that Ethereum’s price is becoming overheated, such as high RSI (Relative Strength Index) values, which can signal a pullback. This time, watch out for premium tokens under the Ethereum chain.
Tip: Always verify news and influencer hype before buying. It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement, but it’s important to ensure you’re making decisions based on data, not speculation.
Phase 3: Large Caps Take Center Stage
Overview:
As Ethereum's momentum stabilizes, large-cap altcoins like Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), DOGE, and Cardano (ADA) start seeing significant price growth. This is where the market broadens out.
Key Signs:
• Large-cap altcoins begin showing massive gains.
• Investors start to move their capital from Bitcoin and Ethereum into these altcoins.
• News outlets highlight the advantages of these altcoins, such as fast transaction speeds or strong ecosystems.
For instant, In 2021, Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana (SOL) saw explosive growth. Binance Coin benefitted from its key role in the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem, while Solana attracted developers with its high transaction speed. In 2024, Avalanche (AVAX) and Polygon (MATIC) followed similar paths.
What to Watch Out For:
Whale manipulation can lead to sharp price movements in large-cap altcoins. Don’t get caught in the excitement without doing your due diligence. Use support and resistance levels to manage your risk and avoid panic selling.
Updated Tip: It’s always tempting to buy in when large-cap coins are rising fast, but waiting for retracements or pullbacks can give you a better entry point.
Phase 4: Full-Blown Altseason
Overview:
This is the part of the bull run that gets everyone's attention. Midcap, lowcap, and even microcap altcoins experience explosive growth. It’s a euphoric time when the market feels like a gold rush.
Key Signs:
• Large-cap coins reach their peak, and the focus shifts to smaller, riskier altcoins.
• Meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE), PEPE, and Shiba Inu (SHIB), etc. see explosive growth as traders chase high returns.
• Social media becomes flooded with stories of ‘overnight’ millionaires and traders boasting about their gains.
The 2021 altseason saw Dogecoin rise by 12,000% and other solid meme tokens that do the same due to a mix of celebrity endorsements and viral memes. In 2024, meme coins like PEPE, Degen, and others in the Base chain gained traction, the same as other premium tokens on the Solana chain.
What to Watch Out For:
The euphoria of autumn can cloud judgment. Greed drives many traders to buy into overvalued assets, only to see them crash shortly after. Protect your gains by setting stop-loss orders and taking profits when appropriate.
Tips on Solid Meme Coins:
> Base Network: Keep an eye on tokens like PEPE, Degen, SKI, and MOG because they are on the move now with over 72% plus boughts and 29% sold, showing potential.
> Solana Chain: meme coins like BONK are still making waves.
> Ethereum Chain: This is home to many meme coins, but as always, exercise caution.
Updated Insight: Don’t rush to buy meme coins after massive price surges. The liquidity can dry up quickly, leaving new buyers stuck holding the bag. Wait for pullbacks before jumping in.
Final Thoughts: Preparing for Market Retracements
Altseason is exciting, but it’s important to remember that the crypto market is volatile. Retracements, or price declines, can wipe out your profits if you're not careful. The key to success in these markets is understanding where you are in the cycle and staying disciplined.
Tips for Success:
• Stay Informed: Follow the news and market trends, but don’t rely solely on social media hype. Use reliable sources and analytics.
• Diversify Your Portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments across different assets.
• Have a strategy: Plan your entry and exit points ahead of time to avoid making impulsive decisions.
• Practice risk management: only invest what you can afford to lose and use stop-losses to protect yourself from major downturns.
The path to altseason is thrilling, but it requires patience, knowledge, and strategy. By understanding the market phases and staying disciplined, you’ll be better prepared to navigate the ups and downs of the crypto world.
